CSN Fantasy Football: Stock Watch Week 11

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Thursday, November 19, 2009

By Mark Stopa

It had been a relatively injury-free season in the NFL until last week, when several injuries changed the values of some key NFL players. As we enter Week 11, let's make some recommendations based on the ever-changing landscape of the NFL.

Upgrades

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: A couple of weeks ago, I declined to trade DeAngelo Williams for Ben Roethlisberger, despite a pressing need at QB. I noted that the return of Troy Polamalu would mean less passing for Roethlisberger, making him unlikely to keep up his gaudy stats. This week, though, after Polamalu hurt his knee again, I'm reversing course. With Polamalu hurt, the Steelers defense won't be as dominant, which should enable Ben to remain an every-week fantasy starter. To illustrate, I just parted with Wes Welker and Mark Sanchez for Roethlisberger and Kevin Walter. Sure, I like Welker, but Ben is a big upgrade over guys like Sanchez. (As an aside on Walter, who I profiled after Owen Daniels got hurt -- expect a good game this week, as Cortland Finnegan covers Andre Johnson all over the field, leaving Walter as Matt Schaub's main target against a Titans secondary that, except for Finnegan, has been exploited all season.)

Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals: The seriousness of Cedric Benson's hip injury is not yet known. If he's out for any period of time, Scott is a must-start in all fantasy leagues. I realize he hasn't proven himself at the NFL level, but with the Raiders, Browns, and Lions on the schedule the next three weeks, it won't matter. If that's not enough to convince you to stash Scott, who's available on waivers in most leagues, on your bench, ask yourself this - would it surprise you if the Bengals say to themselves, "We can beat the Raiders, Browns and Lions without Benson so let's rest him to make sure he's 100 percent for the stretch run."

Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins: With Ronnie Brown out for the year, it's pretty obvious that Williams' stock is on the rise, so I won't belabor the point. If he can keep up his 5.3 YPC in a full-time role, he'll be a top-10 fantasy back the rest of the season.

Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks: Julius Jones bruised his lung last week, but he's not very good even when he's healthy. Expect Forsett to take this starting job and run with it. Or, when he's not running with it, expect Forsett to catch it out of the backfield (10 receptions the past two weeks). The Vikings aren't an ideal matchup this week, but the Rams are up in Week 12. In shallow leagues, Forsett is a matchup starter, but in medium and deep leagues, he's a weekly starter.

Chris Chambers, WR, Chiefs: With Dwayne Bowe suspended the next four games, Chambers has suddenly become the Chiefs top wideout (gulp!). Consider him as a third fantasy WR going forward.

No Change

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: Mike Salfino emailed me the other day to express his surprise at being offered Jacobs in a trade for Roy Williams. If that's all people think Jacobs is worth -- Roy Williams -- then they're out to lunch. Ahmad Bradshaw has struggled since his foot/ankle injury, failing to break 40 yards rushing or 3.0 YPC in a game. Giants coaches, meanwhile, have finally resumed giving Jacobs more of the downhill runs at which he excels. Expect Jacobs to break out this week against a soft Falcons run defense (4.6 YPC), making this the last week to buy Jacobs low.

Donnie Avery, WR, Rams: I attribute Avery's two-TD performance last week more to the injuries in the Saints secondary (see Downgrade, below) than anything Avery did. Let's see some consistency from him before we treat him as anything more than a fringe fantasy starter.

Downgrades

Saints defense:   Were you surprised to see the Rams almost pull out a victory over the Saints last week? Having seen the list of the Saints "inactives" before the game, I wasn't. Defensive Player of the Year candidate Darren Sharper missed the game with a knee injury, as did starting cornerback Jabari Greer. During the game, the Saints other starting corner, Tracy Porter, also went out with a sprained knee. Stud DT Sedrick Ellis also missed his third straight game last week, and, not coincidentally, the Saints allowed a 100-yard rusher each week. If you're considering offensive players against the Saints, use their defense for fantasy purposes, or deciding whether to lay double-digit points with the Saints against the spread, keep a close eye on these injuries. The Saints aren't the same defense without these players on the field.