CSN Fantasy Football: Stock Watch Week 9

Thursday, November 5, 2009
 
By Mark Stopa

Passing offense, like everything else in fantasy football, depends greatly on circumstance.  As we enter Week 9 of the NFL season, let's take a look at some QBs and WRs whose situations have improved ("Upgrades"), others who are dead to me ("Downgrades"), and a couple of players whose stats look impressive but are not sustainable ("No Change").    
 
Upgrades
 
Brett Favre, QB, Vikings:  Earlier this week, colleague Mike Salfino said he'd rather have Brett Favre than Aaron Rodgers for fantasy purposes (due mostly to Rodgers' injury risk relating to his 31 times sacked).  Given Rodgers yardage upside and rushing ability, I respectfully disagree.  The fact that the argument can even be made, though, is telling.  Even on a team with Adrian Peterson, Favre has been the Vikings best player, posting 7.5 YPA and 16 TDs.  With an awesome supporting cast surrounding him (led by future Pro Bowler Sidney Rice, Rookie of the Year candidate Percy Harvin, and, of course, Peterson), there's no reason to believe Favre can't continue his 3,800-yard, 32-TD pace.
 
Kevin Walter, WR, Texans:  With Owen Daniels out for the year (torn ACL), Matt Schaub is going to have to find a different guy to throw to when Andre Johnson is covered.  Don't expect another tight end to emerge, as the Texans don't have anyone else at that position with Daniels' skill set (especially with James Casey out after knee surgery).  Instead, expect Walter to become Matt Schaub's second read and to start showing the form he flashed in 2008, when he scored eight TDs.
 
Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers:  My colleagues Salfino and Scott Pianowski (Yahoo!), have been ridiculing Norv Turner for weeks in their Breakfast Table for keeping Chris Chambers in the starting lineup over Floyd.  Turner finally got the memo, demoting Chambers, then cutting him outright, and inserting Floyd in the starting lineup.  Floyd is still Philip Rivers' third read (behind Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates), but on a team with a good passing offense but bad rushing attack and sub-par defense, there should be plenty of targets for Floyd to become fantasy-worthy.  He's big (6' 6"), athletic, and can stretch the field, starting this week against a Giants secondary that's been exposed in recent games.
 
No Change
 
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers:  In one of my leagues, a fellow owner has been trying to convince me that I should give up DeAngelo Williams for Big Ben, pointing out that just a few players have more fantasy points than Roethlisberger.  I'm not biting.  Ben is a top-10 QB, but despite what the stats may currently show, he's not in the top tier of fantasy QBs.  Particularly now that Troy Polamalu is back from injury; the Steelers defense will ensure that Ben doesn't have to throw as much as he has been.  Their last game before the bye against the Vikings was a good illustration, as Ben had season lows in attempts and yards.  Williams, meanwhile, remains an every-week starter regardless of matchup, as he showed last week by tearing up a previously stout Cardinals rush defense (3.8 YPC).
 
DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles:  All five of Jackson's touchdowns have come from 50(+) yards.  Yes, that makes his fantasy production looks nice, but long-distance scoring like that is not sustainable, even for someone with Jackson's speed.  Remember, Jackson scored just two TDs last year.  Among the WRs I'd prefer over Jackson are Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker, Miles Austin, and Greg Jennings (not to mention the more obvious, top-tier WRs like Reggie Wayne).  
 
Downgrades
 
All Browns:  I buried the Browns a few weeks ago, but this tidbit is worth sharing.  If every pass a QB throws falls incomplete, the QB's rating is 39.6.  Derek Anderson's QB rating is 36.2.  Think about that for a minute before you use any Browns.
 
All Jaguars besides Maurice Jones-Drew:  The Titans came into last week's game against the Jaguars last in the NFL in pass defense (and by a wide margin at that).  Yes, Cortland Finnegan returned to the lineup, so that helped, but there's no excuse for David Garrard's pitiful line of 139 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs.  In fact, last week marked the sixth time in eight games that Garrard has failed to throw a TD.  If Garrard can't produce in a good matchup, how can you trust any Jaguars besides Jones-Drew?